Rafael Leao continues to be at the centre of media attention when it comes to AC Milan, both because of the debate surrounding his performances and the rumours of interest from abroad.
As our colleagues at SempreMilan.it report, today’s edition of La Repubblica stated that Paris Saint-Germain are lining up €120m bids for not only Leao but also Victor Osimhen of Napoli given their desire to plan for life without Kylian Mbappe.
At the end of the season Mbappe will say goodbye to Paris, leaving on a free transfer to LaLiga where Carlo Ancelotti’s Real Madrid is waiting for him.
It will be a saving of over €70m per season for PSG in terms of salary, who will be able to divert everything and a bit more to try and sign a player like Leao.
It was reported in Spain earlier today that Barcelona are also interested in the Portuguese winger, but beyond the credibility of such rumours a more difficult question emerges.
The numbers
Hust one sentence from Theo Hernandez after Sunday night’s win against Napoli is enough to sum up more or less everything: “Leao is an incredible player, when he doesn’t score goals he makes assists.”
Leao has not scored in Serie A since September 23 when he netted the winner against Hellas Verona at San Siro, and of course a winger of his quality will always be partly judged on this, but Stefano Pioli is among his defenders.
“This story that hasn’t scored for a long time has been going on for too long. Within our attacking solutions he is a very important point of reference,” he said.
“He is finding other paths, he is more consistent in his work than he was, he gets a lot of assists, I love Rafa. And I also love him in his way of being.
“He is an artist, artists are geniuses, he is a genius and he is someone who listens. Maybe the mistake is that too much is expected of him, every time he gets the ball.”
The 24-year-old is now on seven league assists for the season, which is only one less than what was recorded in his previous two campaigns in Serie A and there are still 14 games to go.
Not only that, but when looking at Leao compared to other wingers in Serie A in per 90 metrics, he emerges top in assists, key passes and crosses, while he is second in touches inside the box, progressive runs and successful attacking actions.
Moreover, he is first in the league for total big chances created with 12, he has created 38 chances in total (10th in Serie A), has a league-leading 5.1 Expected Assists and has drawn two penalties.
Is Leao really unsellable?
Much of Leao’s future will depend on who will be the next Milan coach. In Antonio Conte’s 3-5-2, for example, the former Lille man would seem like a fish out of water on paper. However, it is a totally different situation under Stefano Pioli or Thiago Motta’s 4-2-3-1.
In addition to that, we must recall that Milan planned for a long-term future with Leao when they agreed to extend his contract until 2028 last year after a long and arduous negotiation, making him the highest paid player in the squad too.
The current difficulties encountered by Leao in front of goal – given he has not scored since last September in the league – does nothing but fuel speculation about his future. Mainly, the question is this: would an offer of €120m or more really be refutable?
Zlatan Ibrahimovic could have a say in what happens should a monster offer come in. The Swede is a great admirer of his ‘little brother’ but, it is rumoured, he is a little disappointed by the fact he has not kicked on in terms of scoring.
A forward earning €7m net per season including bonuses must score goals and Leao isn’t doing that so there may be a pause for reflection, especially with the other uncertainties regarding the attack.
Selling and reinvesting
In addition, there is the rather obvious scenario whereby with the money obtained from the sale of the former Sporting CP player, Milan could significantly strengthen their attacking department with not just one but two or three quality additions.
With the €120-130m deriving from the sale of Leao alone, Milan would have the right liquidity to be able to make a big statement in the summer.
They could then invest in two players that the management are known to really like: Joshua Zirkzee of Bologna and Albert Gudmundsson of Genoa, who would cost €40m and €30m respectively.
Zirkzee and Gudmundsson are two very different profiles but with one crucial similarity: the Dutchman and the Icelandic forwards are both very skilled at creating numerical superiority by beating their man on the dribble.
Selling Leao might also mean that Milan do not have to make a painful choice or even a gamble when it comes to picking just one big signing for the centre-forward role.
While waiting to see what happens with Olivier Giroud and Luka Jovic – who are both on expiring deals – the Leao proceeds could then see Benjamin Sesko arrive, the main objective of the summer mercato at present.
The RB Leipzig center forward is a modern striker capable of leading the line, and he perfectly marries with the project of the ownership given that he is young (20 years of age) and has high potential.
He is scoring at an average of a goal every 104 minutes with the Bundesliga club but he is stuck behind Lois Openda in the pecking order, while he has a €50m clause that is very attractive.
Obviously the money could be diverted to other positions, but it must be remembered that there will already be available budget even without a Leao sale, which will be topped up by other departures such as Charles De Ketelaere.
So, while selling Leao would be painful given what he has contributed over his half-decade at the club and the fact he is one of the best players in the league, there could be the ‘greater good’ argument like with Sandro Tonali’s sale.
Milan might no longer have to rely on Leao to create for Giroud, but rather could have a revolutionised attack that sees the likes of Zirkzee, Sesko, Gudmundsson, Okafor, Pulisic, Chukwueze and Loftus-Cheek all contributing.
