Despite the fact that AC Milan are on a good run of form in the league there continues to be speculation about Stefano Pioli’s future, and Thiago Motta is a name that has been mentioned as a possible replacement.
As we wrote in our most recent Substack update and have reportedly in the past few weeks, the only name really taken into consideration by the Milan management to replace Pioli that of Motta, rather than Antonio Conte or any of the other names linked.
The league victories obtained against Sassuolo, Empoli, Roma and Udinese boosted the morale of the squad, but after being eliminated from the Champions League and Coppa Italia it looks like being another trophy-less season barring a Europa League run.
Wins are important for stability in the present, but in the meantime those in charge are planning for a better future and part of that requires a careful analysis of what has not worked.
Milan’s next fixture is against Bologna, and the clash could serve as the perfect opportunity for the Rossoneri to take a first-hand look at some of their targets in what has been dubbed an ‘audition’ of sorts.
Milan’s problems
A rather broad spectrum of study is being carried out by Gerry Cardinale together with Giorgio Furlani and the new ‘super consultant’ Zlatan Ibrahimovic. It has identified athletic preparation and injury management as one of the most critical aspects to correct.
The ‘injury pandemic’ must not and cannot be considered the only factor in Milan’s semi-failure in 2023-24, which also highlighted significant gaps in the construction of the squad and in the performances of some of the most representative players.
All elements that transversally involve different areas of responsibility and, consequently, also different culprits. But in football, as we know, the old adage is that when things go wrong it’s always the coach’s fault.
This is a preconception partially denied by Cardinale himself last summer with the immediate dismissal of Paolo Maldini and Ricky Massara as directors and the retention – with renewed confidence too – of Pioli as the manager.
Now, however, something seems to have changed. The figure of Pioli is no longer considered ‘untouchable’ and although not yet official, it seems that his era at the club will amicably come to an end after nearly five years.
No to the short-term
The idea of starting another project at the end of the year and not before arises from a two-fold consideration:
1) The desire to give Pioli – a personality well-liked figure appreciated by the entire environment – the opportunity to redeem Milan’s season by aiming to win the Europa League and an unlikely climb to the top of the table.
2) Cardinale’s categorical refusal to rely on temporary solutions, the so-called ‘interim’ head coaches. A choice deemed desperate and not very decisive, which could change little about Milan’s current season.
Every Milan fan who has forgotten what the team achieved under the 58-year-old should watch this video and relive all the emotions we felt during that incredible Scudetto win.
The last-gasp victories, the incredible defensive record to end the season, the highs of the wins against Inter and Napoli – none of that can be erased from the history books and all of it came under the coach that currently stands in the dock.
No matter what happens from now, Pioli will remain the coach that ended the Scudetto drought, that regained a Champions League place after seven years of absence and reached a semi-final, as well as building a young and fun group, an exciting playing style and developing many talents.
However, we can’t shake the feeling that the credit in the bank has run out. Milan are a club that must be judged by winning the biggest games and not filing them under ‘what might have beens’ constantly, which is why an amicable parting seems likely.
Pioli will have the possibility, albeit remote, of earning his position at Milan next season, but the management are already working on what is currently the most probable alternative: a change of coach.
The chosen one
Antonio Conte, Roberto De Zerbi, Raffaele Palladino and Maurizio Sarri were some of the names linked to Milan in recent months, all very capable coaches each with their own strengths.
However, for various reasons the four men are not aligned both on a tactical and strategic level with the guidelines drawn up by RedBird Capital and the Rossoneri management.
The real and only name for the post-Pioli era is that of Thiago Motta, currently the Bologna coach. It is a choice already made and widely confirmed by the frequent presence of scouts at the Stadio Renato Dall’Ara.
This is of course a way to study the strengths and weaknesses of ‘Mottismo’ ahead of an increasingly probable next chapter in Milan’s history, while also taking a look at some of the key players in his current side.
Milan’s preference for the former PSG man – confirmed by Tuttosport and others – was broken by our colleagues at SempreMilan.it in an article titled: ‘Thiago Motta in pole position to replace Pioli’, dated 26 December 2023.
There are many factors that pushed the owners to focus on the native as Pioli’s heir on the Rossoneri bench, with two standing out: his preferred formation (4-2-3-1) and his objective ability to develop young players.
Another non-secondary element is that relating to the salary: Motta in fact earns €2.5m net per season at Bologna and has a contract expiring in June 2024 which, barring sensational twists, will not be renewed.
This means Milan would be able to afford the salaries of two coaches on the payroll, given that Pioli’s contract (unless other clubs call) will remain until 2025 even after a possible dismissal, so he would need paying.
How Motta and Zirkzee’s Milan would play
Milan’s idea is therefore to entrust Motta on the bench starting from the summer and there is a sign of continuity with the past, given that the current Bologna manager uses a 4-2-3-1 system, the same as Pioli.
Motta has already demonstrated that he knows how to work well with a young squad (one that has an average age of around 25 years), managing to extract the maximum potential from them.
The choice to go for Motta could then be followed by an attempt to sign one or two of the best players in the current Bologna squad, who would more than willingly follow him to Milan in the eyes of Gianluca Di Marzio.
We are talking above all about the Dutch striker Joshua Zirkzee (22) – a name that Milan have scouted up close this season and who will have another audition during Saturday night’s game at San Siro.
Lewis Ferguson, Stefan Posch and Riccardo Calafiori are other names to keep an eye on it must be said, with Bologna’s rise to competing for a top four spot very much a team effort.
How would Thiago Motta’s Milan play? We can predict the potential line-up based on the characteristics of the current players that make up the squad.
Goalkeeper: Obviously any coach would not turn away from Mike Maignan, steadfast and certain of confirmation between the posts even if there are some concerns about his renewal. He is one of the very best in his position.
Defence: It is a story for the back four where Motta often loves to start from the right where his most talented full-back Posch resides, a preference that could change sides at Milan where the possession phase often takes place on the left with Theo Hernandez.
In line with the previous choice, the rest of the defensive trio is also structured with Tomori – Calafiori’s counterpart at Bologna – often called to shift around to the left during Theo’s forward runs.
Then there would be a much more stable central defender in the centre – be that Malick Thiaw, Pierre Kalulu or even a new signing like Alessandro Buongiorno – flanked in the possession phase by the centralisation of the last full-back, who is much more disciplined than his colleague on the opposite side.
Motta asks his full-backs to push up often when not in possession in order to ensure continuous pressure on the opposing ball carriers. Precisely for this reason, although Calabria has qualities similar to those requested by Motta, on the right side Kalulu appears to be the most suitable player.
Midfield: Thiago Motta’s two-man midfield is often made up of two similar players capable of interchanging and working at the same time both as mobile interdictors in the non-possession phase, and as box-to-box raiders.
This means they must be capable of creating numerical superiority during the build-up phase, so the two players that seem to fit the bill the most at the moment are Yunus Musah and Ismael Bennacer, though again a new addition cannot be ruled out.
Attack: Moving on to the attacking midfielder role, the central position currently occupied by Ferguson at Bologna could be covered by Ruben Loftus-Cheek or Tijjani Reijnders, both players capable of moving well between the lines, guaranteeing balance with retreats when not in possession.
On the wings, Rafael Leao would also represent the lethal weapon for Motta’s Milan, who often asks the left-footed winger to break away quickly as happened with Musa Barrow before and Riccardo Orsolini today.
The real unknown is on the right where Christian Pulisic and Samu Chukwueze appear to have little affinity with the type of game structured by the native coach, who often requires greater sacrifice and work rate than that offered by the two summer signings.
It is similar to what Pioli asked of Alexis Saelemaekers, who ironically is now working under Motta at Bologna, so it is on the right where Milan could be called upon to intervene on the market, especially given Pulisic could play on the left if needed.
In the centre-forward role, the perfect name is Zirzkee, a fast, unpredictable attacker who is very skilled in one-on-one situations in tight spaces and in the open field.
He is diametrically opposed to Olivier Giroud and Luka Jovic in mould, but with similar characteristics to those of Noah Okafor who under Motta could have more space playing centre-forward as a ‘9.5’.
Thiago Motta’s Milan (4-2-3-1): Maignan; Kalulu, Thiaw, Tomori, Theo Hernandez; Musah, Bennacer; Pulisic, Reijnders, Rafael Leao; Zirkzee.
