Despite the fact that AC Milan are on a good run of form in the league there continues to be speculation about Stefano Pioli’s future, and Thiago Motta is a name that has been mentioned as a possible replacement.
As we wrote in our most recent Substack update and have reportedly in the past few weeks, the only name really taken into consideration by the Milan management to replace Pioli that of Motta, rather than Antonio Conte or any of the other names linked.
The league victories obtained against Sassuolo, Empoli, Roma and Udinese boosted the morale of the squad, but after being eliminated from the Champions League and Coppa Italia it looks like being another trophy-less season barring a Europa League run.
Wins are important for stability in the present, but in the meantime those in charge are planning for a better future and part of that requires a careful analysis of what has not worked.
Milan’s next fixture is against Bologna, and the clash could serve as the perfect opportunity for the Rossoneri to take a first-hand look at some of their targets in what has been dubbed an ‘audition’ of sorts.
Milan’s problems
A rather broad spectrum of study is being carried out by Gerry Cardinale together with Giorgio Furlani and the new ‘super consultant’ Zlatan Ibrahimovic. It has identified athletic preparation and injury management as one of the most critical aspects to correct.
The ‘injury pandemic’ must not and cannot be considered the only factor in Milan’s semi-failure in 2023-24, which also highlighted significant gaps in the construction of the squad and in the performances of some of the most representative players.
All elements that transversally involve different areas of responsibility and, consequently, also different culprits. But in football, as we know, the old adage is that when things go wrong it’s always the coach’s fault.
This is a preconception partially denied by Cardinale himself last summer with the immediate dismissal of Paolo Maldini and Ricky Massara as directors and the retention – with renewed confidence too – of Pioli as the manager.
Now, however, something seems to have changed. The figure of Pioli is no longer considered ‘untouchable’ and although not yet official, it seems that his era at the club will amicably come to an end after nearly five years.
#ACMilan in big games 2023-24:
➤ Roma 1-2 W
➤ Inter 5-1 L
➤ Newcastle 0-0 D
➤ Lazio 2-0 W
➤ Dortmund 0-0 D
➤ Juventus 0-1 L
➤ PSG 3-0 L
➤ Napoli 2-2 D
➤ PSG 2-1 W
➤ Dortmund 1-3 L
➤ Atalanta 3-2 L
➤ Newcastle 1-2 W
➤ Atalanta 1-2 L pic.twitter.com/VoASMP9xM1— MilanData📊 (@acmilandata) January 11, 2024
No to the short-term
The idea of starting another project at the end of the year and not before arises from a two-fold consideration:
1) The desire to give Pioli – a personality well-liked figure appreciated by the entire environment – the opportunity to redeem Milan’s season by aiming to win the Europa League and an unlikely climb to the top of the table.
2) Cardinale’s categorical refusal to rely on temporary solutions, the so-called ‘interim’ head coaches. A choice deemed desperate and not very decisive, which could change little about Milan’s current season.
Every Milan fan who has forgotten what the team achieved under the 58-year-old should watch this video and relive all the emotions we felt during that incredible Scudetto win.
The last-gasp victories, the incredible defensive record to end the season, the highs of the wins against Inter and Napoli – none of that can be erased from the history books and all of it came under the coach that currently stands in the dock.
No matter what happens from now, Pioli will remain the coach that ended the Scudetto drought, that regained a Champions League place after seven years of absence and reached a semi-final, as well as building a young and fun group, an exciting playing style and developing many talents.
However, we can’t shake the feeling that the credit in the bank has run out. Milan are a club that must be judged by winning the biggest games and not filing them under ‘what might have beens’ constantly, which is why an amicable parting seems likely.
Pioli will have the possibility, albeit remote, of earning his position at Milan next season, but the management are already working on what is currently the most probable alternative: a change of coach.
The chosen one
Antonio Conte, Roberto De Zerbi, Raffaele Palladino and Maurizio Sarri were some of the names linked to Milan in recent months, all very capable coaches each with their own strengths.
However, for various reasons the four men are not aligned both on a tactical and strategic level with the guidelines drawn up by RedBird Capital and the Rossoneri management.
The real and only name for the post-Pioli era is that of Thiago Motta, currently the Bologna coach. It is a choice already made and widely confirmed by the frequent presence of scouts at the Stadio Renato Dall’Ara.
This is of course a way to study the strengths and weaknesses of ‘Mottismo’ ahead of an increasingly probable next chapter in Milan’s history, while also taking a look at some of the key players in his current side.
Milan’s preference for the former PSG man – confirmed by Tuttosport and others – was broken by our colleagues at SempreMilan.it in an article titled: ‘Thiago Motta in pole position to replace Pioli’, dated 26 December 2023.
There are many factors that pushed the owners to focus on the native as Pioli’s heir on the Rossoneri bench, with two standing out: his preferred formation (4-2-3-1) and his objective ability to develop young players.
Another non-secondary element is that relating to the salary: Motta in fact earns €2.5m net per season at Bologna and has a contract expiring in June 2024 which, barring sensational twists, will not be renewed.
This means Milan would be able to afford the salaries of two coaches on the payroll, given that Pioli’s contract (unless other clubs call) will remain until 2025 even after a possible dismissal, so he would need paying.
How Motta and Zirkzee’s Milan would play
Milan’s idea is therefore to entrust Motta on the bench starting from the summer and there is a sign of continuity with the past, given that the current Bologna manager uses a 4-2-3-1 system, the same as Pioli.
Motta has already demonstrated that he knows how to work well with a young squad (one that has an average age of around 25 years), managing to extract the maximum potential from them.
The choice to go for Motta could then be followed by an attempt to sign one or two of the best players in the current Bologna squad, who would more than willingly follow him to Milan in the eyes of Gianluca Di Marzio.
We are talking above all about the Dutch striker Joshua Zirkzee (22) – a name that Milan have scouted up close this season and who will have another audition during Saturday night’s game at San Siro.
Lewis Ferguson, Stefan Posch and Riccardo Calafiori are other names to keep an eye on it must be said, with Bologna’s rise to competing for a top four spot very much a team effort.
How would Thiago Motta’s Milan play? We can predict the potential line-up based on the characteristics of the current players that make up the squad.
Goalkeeper: Obviously any coach would not turn away from Mike Maignan, steadfast and certain of confirmation between the posts even if there are some concerns about his renewal. He is one of the very best in his position.
Defence: It is a story for the back four where Motta often loves to start from the right where his most talented full-back Posch resides, a preference that could change sides at Milan where the possession phase often takes place on the left with Theo Hernandez.
In line with the previous choice, the rest of the defensive trio is also structured with Tomori – Calafiori’s counterpart at Bologna – often called to shift around to the left during Theo’s forward runs.
Then there would be a much more stable central defender in the centre – be that Malick Thiaw, Pierre Kalulu or even a new signing like Alessandro Buongiorno – flanked in the possession phase by the centralisation of the last full-back, who is much more disciplined than his colleague on the opposite side.
Motta asks his full-backs to push up often when not in possession in order to ensure continuous pressure on the opposing ball carriers. Precisely for this reason, although Calabria has qualities similar to those requested by Motta, on the right side Kalulu appears to be the most suitable player.
Midfield: Thiago Motta’s two-man midfield is often made up of two similar players capable of interchanging and working at the same time both as mobile interdictors in the non-possession phase, and as box-to-box raiders.
This means they must be capable of creating numerical superiority during the build-up phase, so the two players that seem to fit the bill the most at the moment are Yunus Musah and Ismael Bennacer, though again a new addition cannot be ruled out.
Attack: Moving on to the attacking midfielder role, the central position currently occupied by Ferguson at Bologna could be covered by Ruben Loftus-Cheek or Tijjani Reijnders, both players capable of moving well between the lines, guaranteeing balance with retreats when not in possession.
On the wings, Rafael Leao would also represent the lethal weapon for Motta’s Milan, who often asks the left-footed winger to break away quickly as happened with Musa Barrow before and Riccardo Orsolini today.
The real unknown is on the right where Christian Pulisic and Samu Chukwueze appear to have little affinity with the type of game structured by the native coach, who often requires greater sacrifice and work rate than that offered by the two summer signings.
It is similar to what Pioli asked of Alexis Saelemaekers, who ironically is now working under Motta at Bologna, so it is on the right where Milan could be called upon to intervene on the market, especially given Pulisic could play on the left if needed.
In the centre-forward role, the perfect name is Zirzkee, a fast, unpredictable attacker who is very skilled in one-on-one situations in tight spaces and in the open field.
He is diametrically opposed to Olivier Giroud and Luka Jovic in mould, but with similar characteristics to those of Noah Okafor who under Motta could have more space playing centre-forward as a ‘9.5’.
Thiago Motta’s Milan (4-2-3-1): Maignan; Kalulu, Thiaw, Tomori, Theo Hernandez; Musah, Bennacer; Pulisic, Reijnders, Rafael Leao; Zirkzee.
I do not get the obsession with getting rid of Pioli, he’s doing just fine. Inter and Juve are both benefitting from stability and long term strategy in their sporting departments this season, as well as Juve being out of Europe and Inter having an unsustainable debt and payroll.
We’re third, by a comfortable margin from 5th, with the fourth or fifth biggest payroll and were third in a UCL group where we had the third biggest payroll. We’ve got a young team that’s full of players new to the team.
Pioli’s doing well, let’s have some stability and evolve this team.
I agree. I’m not in favour of Pioli leaving, he managed to cement us in third place til now despite starting the season with completely revamped team and all the injuries along the way. The team seem to be firmly behind him as well.
Also, what if Motta fails? Everyone hails him as the next big thing but he’s still a rookie. He’s a gamble.
Yeah, I’m beginning to come around to Pioli playing out his final contract season and seeing how it goes. This is assuming we continue to have a strong second half in Serie A where we close the gap to first somewhat and make a very deep run in the EL. If he can do that then I say let him continue for 2024-25, and then evaluate the renewal in December 2024. If we’re battling for the title and make the CL knockouts then give him an extension. If we’re in 3rd or 4th, far behind first, and out of the CL again then just let him finish the season/contract and move on in the summer.
Pioli can’t beat top sides and his offensive tactics are trash. I thank him for his time but it’s over, time to move on.
He beat plenty of top sides last year but we struggled against sides that sat deep. This year we’ve struggled against top sides a bit more due to less defence in the midfield but we’ve been able to create more chances, despite Leao being off form.
Wish for a change all you want, but there isn’t a coach out there who will instantly make this squad win Serie A, especially not with Inter in a peak of a cycle and Juve having no Euro commitments. Those teams’ current success is grounded in long term strategic planning which Milan are well behind on. Hence Inter ended up with several Milan transfer targets and Juve are reaping the benefits of an U23 team we’re only just starting to plan for.
Last year Allegri was a busted flush, too defensive blah blah, now he’s top of the league. Again. Pioli is not the problem but there’s no one quick fix to leapfrog well performing teams who’ve only lost one game all season.
He has beaten plenty of top teams. So you’re wrong. Nobody can honestly sit here and tell me Thiago Motta would be better. It’s ridiculous.
Who? This season we lost to Inter, Juve, Atalanta x2, choked a two goal lead twice (once against Napoli), knocked out of group stages of CL, knocked out of Coppa. It’s time to move on.
No wonder milan fans r as bad as management. Every season they spend 100m buying players, improving squad sets objectives to win trophies. By mid season they realize the targets r not achievable losing 5-1 to rivals, playing some unattractive inconsistent football, amd resets the objectives to just to finish top 4 🤣
The coach is an utter failure formulating tactics against top opponents , almost gets near the exit door then suddenly starts winning against mid table teams and everyone back happy, and the cycle repeats
I want to take this moment to thank you for your service for the Milan community. Ty Sempre Milan. 🫡
Musah is ultra low IQ player for a midfield with any coach
I love how Musah is quietly becoming the next Krunic. I don’t understand this criticism given how he’s had to play 4-5 positions through the year and has acquitted himself relatively well. Oh and he’s only 20.¯\_(ツ)_/¯
If there is a player on the field who scans more frequently than him and consistently evaluates and changes his positioning based on that mental map, I would love to hear about this high-IQ player.
Like the line up except Reijnders as a 10. The CAM needs to be good at finishing chances and be a threat with shots from outside the box, especially when your left winger isn’t good at those areas too. Love Reijnders but he is poor with his shooting and there isn’t much power in his shot.
Samardzic from Udinese would be a great fit at that spot.
“I do not get the obsession with getting rid of Pioli, he’s doing just fine. ”
That’s the problem. Pioli does just fine or just enough to stay employed, but if you wanna compete for trophies and titles he should absolutely go.
Some here talk about stability when it comes to inter but they actually changed their squad even more over the summer than Milan did.
Pioli’s time is done. Good luck to him in his future endeavors as long it’s not with Milan anymore.
If you want to compete for trophies and titles consistently, either massively outspend the opposition or have a long term strategy to get there – I can’t believe anyone thinks just switching out the head coach instantly makes this team better than the current Inter or Juve.
We just made a huge change last off season, changing the directors and setup. Changing the strategy to finally sell an asset in order to reinvest. Hopefully we overhaul the club’s medical setup. Let’s get behind the acquisitions we made last summer and see how they develop under a coach that’s had a good record.
Look at how far ahead Juve are as a club, with their stadium and their U23 team. Look at how Marotta has planned his transfer activity out well in advance with clear plans A, B and C.
“Conte/de Zerbi/Motta will magically overcome that” is just wishful thinking.
Juventus used to be far ahead as a club, not anymore. Their advantage over Milan this season is the coach and the benefit of only playing in 1 competition.
Marotta is one of the best in the business bot if their activity is so planned, how did they only finish 2 points ahead of Milan last season and even this season the difference between the 2 clubs are the coach and that their best player is playing out of his mind, plus they have the help from the referees.
Inter sells at least 1 asset every season to reinvest. They sold Onana and Brozovic last summer. They sold their best youth player Casadei the previous summer. Lukaku and Hakimi the summer before that. Icardi the summer before that one.
You wanna constantly praise the other clubs and criticize your own even though the other clubs are no better than yours.
You have a picture in your head of Milan as if they were Roma.
When it comes to Pioli.
No one forced Pioli to change formation, he did that. He is the one that wanted midfielders with the characteristics Musah, RLC and Reijnders have. He is the one that refused to let go off Krunic while Milan had Dominguez on a stand-by. He is the one who refused to fire Osti , the main reason behind the unlimited injuries. But you are giving him a pass and even saying he is doing just fine.
And yes, even though his football sucks and he will quit in 2 years, Conte will instantly fix Pioli’s mess. Check his credentials in his 1st season at a new club. That’s not wishful thinking. Milan squad healthy is better than Juventus squad and a striker away from being better than inter’s.
And, If you have to massively overspend to beat inter or Juventus doesn’t that mean that your coach is not good?
I’m not constantly praising other clubs and criticising Milan, I was saying I think we’ve done a lot of the right things and decisions, we’re just further behind those other two in the current cycle. I think Juve will struggle more next season when they’re back in Europe (with a low coefficient) and Inter’s financial position will cause them serious issues going forward, unless a Middle Eastern country bails them out, but Marotta is doing a great job papering over cracks.
Conte will instantly improve the team? There’s an argument for that, though we don’t have a dominant defensive midfielder he relies on and I’m not sure his formation would get more out of Leao. He would destroy the foundations of the club over a few seasons though IMO and undo a lot of the good work that has been done.
“If you have to massively overspend to beat inter or Juventus doesn’t that mean that your coach is not good?” – not really, I think we’re competitive with them but both are having exceptional seasons this year. They’re well coached and so are we, but they’re spending more and in a better position because of direction in recent years (and in Inter’s case building a sustainable debt that I consider cheating). I think we could have Guardiola or Klopp or Allegri or Inzaghi and not be top of the league with this team right now. We overachieved by winning Serie A, we overachieved getting to the UCL semi final. This year we are doing well but not massively overachieving; sometimes that will happen.
You mentioned Allegri but 12 months ago loads of people wanted him gone. Some stability and planning as a team and they’re doing well now. I think we have made some good decisions and time to see them develop.
Formation and play with some young player, both already did it. what different between pioli and motta ?? I think only the salary.. haha.
If milan wanna compete, they should go to conte or sarri. If they choose italian coach. Or maybe Mourinho.
I get the “it’s time to move on” argument but I do wonder where we’d be now if we’d had a full squad the whole season… or the rub of the green with refereeing calls, like Inter… I’m not 100% convinced I see the point in replacing Pioli with Motta. And definitely not Sarri or Sourpuss Mou.
Without the injury crisis we probably would have advanced out of the UCL group stage, and would be competing for the Scudetto. Look at Inter; their players are almost never injured. Several bad results we had were attributable to essential players being unavailable or getting injured then and there during the game, resulting in the team getting fragilized and disorganized.
I do see Pioli’s shortcomings – stubborn, insists with things that aren’t working, adapts little to circumstances of a game, gets the wrong strategy (such as pressing high against Inter instead of a more prudent defensive approach). Still, I think he does have positives too and we’d be doing a lot better under him if we had all our players available and not injured, like Inter.
So, I don’t see a huge advantage in replacing Pioli. If I were to pick what thing to fix, the injury problem, or the head coach, I’d choose the injury problem.
What makes me a bit weary is: to what point is PIoli himself partially responsible for the injury problem? He favors a lot of running, and sponsors/likes a guy who leads the athletics department who seems to force the players too much. He has resisted the idea of firing the guy.
If Pioli is indeed partially responsible for the injuries, he either needs to change radically in this regard, or he needs to go. We can’t accomplish anything with half our players missing all the time.
If the injury problem can be really fixed, then I’d give Pioli some leeway and wouldn’t root very strongly for his being fired.
Say all what you want, if Pioli manages to stay top 3 and reach higher or even win Europa League, i would like to have Pioli next season, exception is if some really high profile coach like Ancelotti or Guardiola will come with high transfer budget than i would like a change, but Pioli under this transfer budget, constant tension at the club from all parties, he achieved way more than we expected, and based on points on average he colected to this day is really high, much higher than other coaches.
Thiago Motta… yet another experiment. He has no experience with a top team.
Stick to what works and bring in another midfielder and maybe a top striker to replace Giroud.
We are “professional” ac milan supporters here, please give us better articles not this kids’ stuff, busy lying and speculating about the next coach, then even tell us how he will play and who he will play, come on, milan has more to write about these days, than these cheap rumours
News dropped that Klopp will leave Liverpool at the end of the season..
Are we going to make an attempt or do y’all think he already has Bayern written all over him?
Poli big mistake is to try 433. It just doesn’t work especially on big teams. The new coach needs to go back to 4312. We need a strong AMF and twin striker attack.
Sell Leao and use the money to bring in 1 new AMF and 1 striker
Anyone who thinks we should keep him at this juncture clearly doesn’t watch live matches. They’re is no plan other than play defensively. We have far too much attacking talent to be playing the way we are and that comes down to the stubborn tactics of the coach. End of…